Men's NCAA Tournament preview

Mar 03, 2022
D3 gets its dance back and Ryan Scott is all fired up for the chance to preview it and predict it.
Photos by Peter Meshanic, Steve Frommell, David Malamut of d3photography.com
 

By Ryan Scott
D3hoops.com

Is this thing on?

Yes? 

Ok. It looks like we are really going to have a Division III basketball national champion! It’s been a long three years since we gathered in Fort Wayne to crown UW-Oshkosh – and the Titans are our presumed No. 1 overall seed and intent on repeating.

If you’ve joined the ranks of Division III fandom in the intervening years, this is the space where we break down all the brackets, identify key match-ups and make predictions about how things will work out.

Honestly, it’s been so long since I’ve done this, I don’t remember the format or how poorly I’ve predicted tournaments in the past (although I will always remember I got Babson right my first year). Let’s call it a fresh start for everyone and let’s enjoy some NCAA Division III men’s basketball!

Jake Rhode missed the pandemic-shortened season but has not missed a beat for Elmhurst in 2021-22.
Photo by Steve Frommell, d3photography.com
 

 

Top Left bracket

Blackburn (11-17) at UW-Oshkosh (22-3); Case Western Reserve (18-6) vs. Dubuque (21-6)
Chapman (22-4) at Mary Hardin-Baylor (25-2); Whitworth (22-4) vs. Trinity, Texas (22-5)
Marian (19-8) at UW-Platteville (21-5); St. John’s (23-4) vs. Calvin (20-8)
Washington & Jefferson (24-4) at Elmhurst (22-6); Pomona-Pitzer (21-4) vs. Northwestern (22-6)

No path to a national title is easy, but our defending champs have the most straightforward road to Fort Wayne of any top seed – a first round opponent with a losing record, perhaps a CWRU team that struggled down the stretch, a team that’s going to have to fly in, and then either the surprise CCIW tourney winner or a conference opponent they’ve already beaten three times this year. Of course, there are always upset and surprises – it’s why we play the games – but the Titans have been a juggernaut all year and it will take a tremendous performance to knock them out.

Giant Killer: The Elmhurst game feels a little like a giant swatting at flies – not just because Washington and Jefferson sounds like two small teams playing together. The Bluejays have size inside with Lavon Thomas and a sharpshooter in Jake Rhode, but will have to chase around a Presidents’ team that averages almost 90 ppg, with three players averaging over 15 per contest. It’s unlikely there will be an upset, but if Elmhust goes down it will be because W&J spun them around and tired them out.

Player to Watch: Josiah Johnson. Mary Hardin-Baylor’s junior All-American has been playing through injury this year, but he’s still averaged 25 points and six rebounds per game. The Cru will be energized by the surprise opportunity to host the first weekend, but they’ll only be able to make the flight north if Johnson is on his game.

What Will Happen: I see a surprise (to those outside Iowa) Dubuque win in the first round and Whitworth will survive yet another squeaker in Texas. St. John’s and Pomona-Pitzer will join the hosts in the second round. We’ll see the Pomona-Elmhurst matchup we lost to COVID in 2020. I picked Pomona then, but I think the Bluejays are better now. UMHB will push Oshkosh more than most people think, but the Titans will roll over Elmhurst for a return trip to the Final Four.

We've run a couple of photos of Wabash's Jack Davidson lately so here's a little equal time for Emory's Matthew Schner.
Emory athletics photo
 

Bottom Left bracket

Averett (17-11) at Emory (19-5); Wabash (24-3) vs. Berry (23-2)
Stevens (16-8) at Mount Union (23-4); Williams (17-4) vs. Neumann (21-7)
Franklin (14-14) at Illinois Wesleyan (21-5); UW-La Crosse (20-6) vs. Heidelberg (18-7)
Cornell (19-8) at Washington U. (18-7); Wheaton (Ill.) (20-6) vs. Hope (22-6)

This is, perhaps, the deepest quadrant on the board. Ten of these teams have been ranked in the D3hoops.com Top 25 at some point this year, and Hope’s been knocking on the door all season. It would not be a total shock to see any of them in Fort Wayne. Hope and Wheaton are big rivals, beyond even the basketball court and we’ve got the potential of a WIAC-CCIW matchup in the second round. Whoever emerges from this group with certainly be battle tested ... and well traveled; Averett to La Crosse is more than 1,000 miles, but the bracket is set up to avoid flights. Lots of time on the bus for these teams to watch video!

Best Matchup: It isn’t a guarantee, but a lot of people have circled a potential Emory-Wabash second-round clash for the inevitable dual between Emory’s Matthew Schner and Wabash’s Jack Davidson. Conference players of the year. Undisputed team leaders. Both guys can take over a game. Schner is averaging 23 points and eight rebounds per game, scoring 39 against Case Western Reserve earlier this year. Davidson, a 2,000-point career scorer, is at 25 and six with a 37 point season high. Neither is a one man team, but they each have one to stop!

Story to Watch: Much has been made of WashU’s Justin Hardy, an All-American whose battle with Stage IV stomach cancer has kept him off the court the last few games of the season. Treatment has made it difficult to travel, but the Bears secured home court through the first weekend and, if the seeds hold, are in line to host the second as well. Why does that matter? Coach Pat Juckem explains, “Having him on the bench isn’t quite as good as having him on the floor, but it’s worth ten points at least, the inspiration that he is.” We’ll see if that’s enough; they have an incredibly tough pod to escape.

What Will Happen: I think Emory’s size will be just a bit too much for Wabash to handle – an example of how matchups might derail a team that could otherwise go deep. It’s the same story for a Williams team that typically has a size advantage, but home court and good post defenders will see Mount Union through. I need to pick some upsets at some point, but I’m not sure if Hope over Wheaton counts. I see IWU over La Crosse in a battle and WashU getting a second weekend as well. Illinois Wesleyan will be too much for Emory, sending a second set of Titans to Fort Wayne.

Mason Lydic is one of four Marietta players averaging more than 11 points per game, which is what makes the Pioneers a tough out.
Photo by Larry Radloff, d3photography.com
 

Top Right bracket

Medaille (15-12) at Marietta (25-2); Rochester (17-8) vs. Eastern (21-5)
Keene State (20-6) at Swarthmore (22-5); Oswego (25-2) vs. Hood (20-6)
Baruch (20-7) at Christopher Newport (24-2); Rowan (23-5) vs. Susquehanna (23-4)
Wilson (18-7) at Stockton (24-4); Johns Hopkins (22-3) vs. Yeshiva (25-3)

This quadrant is full of rivalries, real and imagined. Yeshiva played at Johns Hopkins in 2020, but a Conner Delaney injury and a Penn State-Harrisburg upset prevented their second round meeting. Rochester took out what might have been Marietta’s best team to-date, at home, in the Sweet 16 in 2017. None of the current players were there that day, but both coaches were and they haven’t forgotten. This is also the group most ripe for upsets. Don’t take your eyes off in the first weekend – and remember, a lot of these are early start times in the first round. No shame in going home sick from work on Friday afternoon.

Nail Biter: Wilson comes from a small conference, but they played three NCAA Tournament teams early. All were losses, but also potential learning experiences. The Phoenix are loaded with upperclassmen and the NJAC has developed an unfortunate habit of losing earlier than expected. Stockton hasn’t shown much weakness this season, but the crowd in Galloway will likely be holding their breath until the lead’s at least 20.

Player to Watch: Mason Wang, Hood. The definition of an under-the-radar star. Wang sits 54 points short of 2,000 for his career, and while the milestone seems unlikely, it’s not outside his scoring ability. Hood hasn’t faced a team as good as Oswego since November, but if the Lakers are willing to run, Wang could rack up points in a hurry. He shoots 50% from the floor and 42% from deep; he’s also quite good getting to the rim. You might not know his name, but he’s awfully fun to watch!

What Will Happen: Wang won’t lead Hood to victory, but I’m predicting Keene over Swarthmore. Jeff Hunter is their best player at 6-7 and 6-6 James Anozie is punishing in the paint. The Garnet bring back most of their top ranked team from 2020, with the exception of two All-American post players. The lack of experience inside will hurt them in this one. I’ve also got Yeshiva winning the pod, over host, Stockton and CNU over Rowan, whose pace will just be too much for Susquehanna. Marietta avenges the loss to Rochester and Oswego runs by Keene. Marietta holds serve at home the second weekend and marches to Fort Wayne after knocking out CNU. Sorry Macs fans, but your run ends with John Krikorian’s defense, which figures out how to stop the rest of the team, while Ryan Turell gets his points.

Miles Mallory has blocked 69 shots for Randolph-Macon this year, which may seem like a nice total to you, but is probably not appreciated by the Yellow Jackets' opponents.
Photo by Brian Bishop, d3photography.com
 

Bottom Right bracket

Mitchell (17-10) at Randolph-Macon (27-1); DeSales (22-5) vs. Babson (18-7)
Westfield State (22-4) at Nazareth (23-4); Mass-Dartmouth (24-4) vs. Emerson (18-7)
Husson (15-9) at Wesleyan (24-3); Nichols (25-3) vs. RPI (21-5)
Vassar (18-8) at WPI (24-2); St. Joseph’s, Conn. (26-1) vs. Penn State-Harrisburg (23-3)

This quadrant is full of unknowns and one very, very known quantity. Wesleyan won the NESCAC, but in a year where we’re not entirely sure if they’re as strong overall. UMass-Dartmouth and St. Joe’s have super athletic teams and some big wins, but none against for-sure national powers. Nichols is a couple years removed from their peak; RPI has suffered injuries. PSU-Harrisburg was the upset toast of the too-brief 2020 tourney, but their schedule was very weak. This one’s going to be a wild ride!

Team to Watch: Randolph-Macon. It seems silly to pick a top seed, but they bring in as strong a resume as we’ve seen in some time. In addition to running an especially deep ODAC, they played a killer non-conference schedule (beating presumed No. 3 and No. 4 overall seeds Marietta and Emory on back to back nights in November) and losing only in OT to CNU on the road. There are questions about whether they have enough size to match up with the best teams in other regions, but that won’t likely get tested until at least the final eight. Rarely do we see a team with as much discipline on both sides of the ball and point guard Buzz Anthony is the epitome of it. If you’re an X's and O's kind of fan, this is the team for you.

Clash of Styles: RPI has the best scoring defense in the country and they barely average 70 points per game themselves. Nichols scores 90 and gives up 80. The Bison are healthy after missing players sporadically throughout the season and RPI is playing short Patrick Mahoney, a 6-5 forward and their best player, who was injured in early February and not expected back. It’s the game to watch, because I’m not sure anyone knows what it will look like. Regardless, it should be fun!

What Will Happen: Randolph-Macon will cruise to the round of eight, beating DeSales easily, but getting a real challenge from Mass-Dartmouth. The Corsairs take care of the ball, force turnovers, and dominate with athleticism; the Yellowjackets are just a bit better in all three of those areas. I do think Nichols gets past RPI, but Wesleyan is too much for them. Similarly, St. Joe’s inside presence is trumped by WPI’s twin towers. John Lowther missed some games due to injury, but he seems back on form. That size overpowers Wesleyan, too, and, in a shocker, proves too much for a Randolph-Macon team physically drained from the intense battle with Dartmouth the night before.

Championship weekend

UW-Oshkosh and Illinois Wesleyan will meet up again, after an overtime battle in November at IWU’s Jack Sikma Invitational. Both teams have gotten deeper and stronger since then, but IWU have had a few more hiccups, leaving some room for doubt. IWU’s bench matches up better the deeper you go, but UWO rarely has foul trouble and there’s not a huge size advantage either way. It’s a true even battle that promises to be just as good as their early-season classic. I’m predicting the opposite result, though – Oshkosh to the championship game.

On the other side of the bracket, you’ve got a defensive-minded WPI squad against a fast-paced, in your face, offensive onslaught in Marietta. Tim Kreeger and Sahmi Willoughby will be tasked with slowing down Lowther and 6-8 freshman John Adams in the post. I’m not sure they win that battle, even on their best day, but the are capable of doing enough to keep their team ahead. Jason Ellis typically gets the hype for the Pioneers, but PG Luke Isaly is the MVP. As primary ball handler, he’s led Marietta to the fewest turnovers and best assist to turnover ratio in the country, even more impressive when you consider the pace at which they play. This is finally the year: Marietta to the final.

An Oshkosh-Marietta matchup makes me think of the Oshkosh-Nebraska Wesleyan final in 2018. Both teams broke the record for made 3s in a Final Four game, with smooth play back and forth the whole night. The Titans and Pioneers have similar ability to play good defense without drawing whistles and muddying up the pace. They’ll be relentless attacking the rim and keeping the defense honest on the outside. I’d give the guard edge to Marietta, but just slightly, certainly a much closer gap than the Oshkosh advantage inside.

In the end, I don’t know that Marietta has the interior depth to keep up with Hunter Plamann and Levi Borchert’s ability to get inside. The longest reigning Division III men’s basketball champs was the North Park squad who won three straight in the '80s. If Oshkosh doesn’t win the title, they’ll fall just a week short of taking the record. I think they win, though, and keep the clock running.