This is the second part of my innaugural effort to select the ten strongest conferences in Division III men's basketball over the last four seasons. In the first part, I explained what "strongest" means and ranked the CCIW, NESCAC, WIAC and UAA one through four, in that order.
- Part I: Four tops
- Conference by conference: NCAA tournament records since 2007
- Conference by conference: NCAA tournament bids since 2007
- Conference standings: 2015-2016 | 2014-15 | 2013-14 | 2012-1
Here's how the rest of my top ten shakes out.
5. Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (MIAC)
Average non-conference winning percentage vs D3 for last four seasons: 0.660 (4th)
Record in last four NCAA tournaments: 13-6 (0.684 – 4th)
Programs qualifying for at least one of the last four NCAA tournaments: 2 of 11
Average in-conference winning percentage of last four regular season champions: 0.900
Average Massey ranking: 11
| St. Thomas has 11 NCAA tournament wins and one national championship during the last four years. |
The MIAC isn’t too far behind the top four. The impressive non-conference winning percentage noted above was even better the last two seasons when the MIAC won 75 percent and 70 percent of its games against Division III foes. The MIAC jumped from 26th in the Massey rankings three seasons ago to fourth and then third last season, so that average ranking of 11 is also deceptive. To jump into the top tier, though, the MIAC needs someone other than St. Thomas to make noise in the NCAA tournament. Set aside the Tommies’ excellence and the rest of the MIAC has two NCAA tournament wins since 2008, both from St. Olaf. It would also help if the rest of the MIAC fared better against the Tommies during the regular season. The last time someone other than St. Thomas won the MIAC title outright was Gustavus Adolphus in 2005 and the Tommies’ 0.900 in-conference regular season winning percentage is the one of the highest you’ll find outside of St. Norbert (0.958).
6. Old Dominion Athletic Conference (ODAC)
Average non-conference winning percentage vs D3: 0.617 (9th)
Record in last four NCAA tournaments: 13-9 (0.591 - 8th)
Programs qualifying for NCAA tournament: 5 of 12
Average in-conference winning percentage of regular season champions: 0.875
Average Massey ranking: 8
| Virginia Wesleyan and Randolph-Macon have been the elite teams in the ODAC, but that hasn't prevented other teams from contending for the conference crown. |
If we did this ranking a couple seasons ago, the ODAC probably would have been fifth and possibly higher. The MIAC has passed the ODAC in terms of non-conference winning percentage the last two seasons. Last year MIAC teams won 70 percent of its non-conference games against Division III foes while the ODAC teams won 59 percent. Still, the ODAC has a solid winning percentage in the NCAA tournament, largely thanks to Virginia Wesleyan which has eight of the conference's 13 wins. Almost half of the ODAC programs have made the NCAA tournament, and that’s impressive given the conference’s size. Overall the national prominence of programs like Virginia Wesleyan and Randolph-Macon hasn’t precluded others like Lynchburg or Randolph from competing for the title. That's a good indicator of a deep conference.
7. North Coast Athletic Conference (NCAC)
Average non-conference winning percentage vs D3: 0.619 (8th of 43)
Record in last four NCAA tournaments: 11-11 (.500 - 15th)
Programs qualifying for NCAA tournament: 5 of 10
Average in-conference winning percentage of regular season champions: 0.872
Average Massey ranking: 11
| Wooster sets the pace in the NCAC and for all of Division III in terms of consecutive NCAA tournament apperances. |
Wooster is the model of consistency in Division III men’s basketball. The Fighting Scots have qualified for the last 14 Division III men's basketball tournaments, the longest streak going. That said, the NCAC is more than Wooster. Ohio Wesleyan has reached five straight NCAA tournaments and the Battling Bishops won the last two conference titles, once with Wooster and once on its own. Six of the 10 programs are still looking for their first conference title, but the conference tournament has provided more surprises, like Denison winning it in 2016 and DePauw doing so in 2015. The NCAC also has the best non-conference winning percentage in the deep Great Lakes region. For the NCAC to make the jump to the next level, someone other than Wooster needs to reach the tournament’s second weekend more consistently.
Three spots left
With three slots left in the Top 10, here are the best candidates from each region.
The Massey rankings love the IIAC, which has an average ranking of 9 over these four years. But it’s hard to overlook the Conference’s 1-4 NCAA tournament record so I went with the NWC instead. Same goes for the Mid Atlantic where I went with the CAC (12-7 NCAA tournament record) over the MAC Commonwealth (1-4 NCAA tournament record), even though the latter has a little higher average Massey ranking.
The MIAA and OAC have comparable Massey ratings over this time, but the OAC has a winning record out of conference against Division III foes (0.553), unlike the top-heavy MIAA (0.479).
| Region | Conf | Non-Conf Record |
Tourney Record |
Tourney Programs |
Massey |
| Northeast | NEWMAC | 0.626 | 0.368 | 4 of 8 | 20 |
| East | SUNYAC | 0.595 | 0.438 | 5 of 10 | 16 |
| Atlantic | NJAC | 0.585 | 0.400 | 4 of 10 | 15 |
| Mid-Atlantic | CAC | 0.542 | 0.632 | 5 of 10 | 14 |
| South | ASC | 0.552 | 0.688 | 5 of 11 | 12 |
| Great Lakes | OAC | 0.595 | 0.438 | 5 of 10 | 16 |
| Central | NACC | 0.470 | 0.500 | 4 of 11 | 24 |
| West | NWC | 0.582 | 0.545 | 2 of 9 | 13 |
Now we winnow this group down to complete the Top 10.
Skip the NACC given its losing non-conference record against Division III opponents. Success in the NCAA tournament matters, so I can’t overlook the NEWMAC’s struggles in March (Record: 7-12 and 3-11 minus Babson's run in 2015), despite it having the best non-conference winning percentage remaining. The NJAC, SUNYAC and OAC also have a losing record in the NCAA tournament and they fall one tier behind the next three conferences in my mind.
8. Capital Athletic Conference (CAC)
Average non-conference winning percentage vs D3: 0.542 (17th of 43)
Record in last four NCAA tournaments: 12-7 (0.632 - 6th)
Programs qualifying for NCAA tournaments: 5 of 10
Average in-conference winning percentage of last four champions: 0.899
Average Massey ranking: 14
| Marcus Carter and Christopher Newport have a chance to raise the CAC's profile even more this coming season. |
Initially I planned to rank the top 20 conferences instead of ten. Then I decided, "Let's see if there's any interest in the first 3,000 words I write about this topic before adding another 3,000." My informal Top 20 had all four conferences from the Mid Atlantic region, starting with this one. The CAC has a nice mix of out-of-conference success and depth at the top with three different programs reaching the Elite 8 in the last four seasons (St. Mary's in 2013, Mary Washington in 2014 and Christopher Newport in 2016). Look at the NCAA tournament results a little closer and you see some very respectable losses. Wesley lost by one on the road at Williams in 2013. Wesley lost another close one at Virginia Wesleyan in 2014. And Christopher Newport lost by four against St. Thomas last season. The CAC had a down year in 2014-2015 when it posted a losing non-conference record and was pegged 24th in the Massey rankings. But otherwise the CAC has quietly been very solid.
9. American Southwest Conference (ASC)
Average non-conference winning percentage vs D3: 0.552 (16th of 43)
Record in last four NCAA tournaments: 11-5 (0.688 - 3rd)
Programs qualifying for NCAA tournaments: 5 of 11
Average in-conference winning percentage of last four champions: 0.789
Average Massey ranking: 12
| We're looking at the last four seasons, so Mary Hardin-Baylor's run to the national title game still counts. |
Remember that we’re looking at performance over the last four seasons, which includes Mary Hardin-Baylor’s incredible run to the national championship game in 2013. That’s a large part of the perhaps surprisingly high NCAA tournament winning percentage. But it’s easy forget that East Texas Baptist and Texas-Dallas have also won multiple games in the NCAA tournament during this period. The ASC is also tough to win. That 0.789 in-conference winning percentage for the regular season champion is the fourth lowest among the 43 conferences. Five of the eleven programs eligible to reach the NCAA tournament during this period have done so. That doesn't count NCAA provisional members Belhaven and McMurry. Do these rankings again next year and the ASC falls farther down the list without another unexpected run to Salem. But for now it's in my Top 10.
Incidentally you might wonder why I slotted the ASC after the Capital Athletic Conference when the objective criteria favor ASC a little. I mentioned some of the CAC's narrow defeats in the NCAA tournament above. Here's the NCAA tournament margins of defeat for the ASC members over this period, excluding Concordia's loss to conference mate Mary Hardin-Baylor: 17 to Amherst, 18 to Whitewater, an ugly 17 to Stevens Point and 19 to Benedictine. The CAC has generally been more competitive in its losses to elite teams.
10. Northwest Conference (NWC)
Average non-conference winning percentage vs D3: 0.582 (14th of 43)
Record in last four NCAA tournaments: 6-5 (0.545 - 14th)
Programs qualifying for NCAA tournaments: 2 of 9
Average in-conference winning percentage of last four champions: 0.906
Average Massey ranking: 13
| Whitworth has had a lot to celebrate in the Northwest Conference. |
The NWC's resume looks a lot like the MIAC's resume, with one big difference. Both conferences have a long-running dominant team at the top (Whitworth here, St. Thomas in the MIAC). Both have another strong team capable of knocking off that top dog in the postseason (Whitman here, St. Olaf in the MIAC). Both have only had two programs reach the NCAA tournament, but it feels like they are deeper than that. And both on average have had very good Massey rankings. The one big difference is that Whitworth has not yet had a long run in the NCAA tournament, like St. Thomas has. Instead the Pirates have had more than their share of March heartbreak, like this game, this game and this game.
You could argue that I'm dissing the NEWMAC, which has a sparkling non-conference record and more depth at the top than the NWC. Or you could argue that I'm not being fair to the NJAC or SUNYAC which stand head-and-shoulders above the other conferences in their regions. Or you could argue that I'm too focused on the IIAC's 1-4 NCAA tournament record when the Massey rankings are a better indication of its strength.
I hope you do argue that, or something else. That's why we do these types of rankings this time of year, to create some interest while we wait for the next season to tip off. So give us your take in the comments section below or on our message boards.