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Women's Final Four

Holland, Mich., 2008 and 2009

2009 tournament preview

By Pat Coleman
Executive Editor, D3hoops.com

A testament to the consistency of Division III women's basketball can be read by taking a look at our playoff history page.

Photo by Ryan Coleman, D3sports.com The UW-Stevens Point Pointers are one of many programs with titles in this year's field.

It lists the winners of every Division III national champion, dating to the first NCAA championship year for women's sports in 1982. Of the 27 national champions, 15 of them are in the field this year. The men can't say that -- they've had seven more championships handed out and only 13 of them are in this year's field. (Thank the WIAC that the number is even that high.)

Southern Maine, which doesn't have a title, has a streak of 20-win seasons that predates the NCAA history of women's basketball. These programs know how to win. Many of them are under the same coaches: Dixie Jeffers, Nancy Fahey, Mike Strong and more.

But while it may mean that it's harder to find an upset in the early rounds, it often means the later rounds are even more entertaining. If history is ever a factor, it's a positive here.

In the tournament preview I pick a Cinderella team (a surprise), a disappointment and a champion in each of the four brackets. We try to define Cinderella as a road team that will make the Sweet 16, and the disappointment as a home team which will lose.

The George Fox Bracket
Occidental (22-5) at Chapman (19-8), winner plays at George Fox (27-0)
Maryville, Tenn. (19-8) at Oglethorpe (25-3), Greensboro (26-2) vs. Mississippi College (22-4)
Eastern Connecticut (25-5) at Messiah (22-4), Thomas More (26-2) vs. Randolph-Macon (23-5)
Washington and Jefferson (24-4) at Hope (25-1), Baldwin-Wallace (21-7) vs. Pitt-Greensburg (24-2)

This is an interesting bracket, one which will require three flights in the sectional round unless Thomas More advances from the third pod. Almost makes one wonder why all basketball brackets can't be done this way.

We've got what appears to be the two best teams appropriately placed at opposite ends of the bracket, so that if, indeed, George Fox and Hope meet, it would be in the Elite Eight. It's not as good as them meeting in the Final Four, but considering what we have to put up with in the men's tournament, this feels pretty good.

Most likely to disappoint: Messiah. Although they're 22-4 and playing at home, where they've enjoyed tremendous fan support, I worry about the Falcons because they're 2-2 against the teams that have been ranked, and that's with catching York (Pa.) and Scranton early in the season. The letdown in the conference semifinals was unexpected and it has come with eight days off to follow.

Cinderella story: It's tough to pick Thomas More -- the Saints would be hosting a regional pod if the geography didn't dictate otherwise -- so I have to look at someone else in the bracket and I think Eastern Connecticut has the best chance to pull off the two wins necessary. I don't think Hope or Oglethorpe loses at home and I don't think the Wednesday night winner beats George Fox on any floor.

Champion: Oglethorpe over Hope. Meanwhile I'm puzzling over the spectacle that an Oglethorpe-George Fox game would be like in the Sweet 16. What an interesting contrast in teams: experienced and fast-paced vs. young and deliberate.

The Rochester Bracket
Keuka (17-7) at Scranton (23-4), St. Lawrence (19-7) vs. Cortland State (23-4)
Christopher Newport (22-6) at York, Pa. (25-2), Cabrini (23-4) vs. Baruch (23-5)
Tufts (21-4) at Moravian (21-6), TCNJ (23-4) vs. DeSales (23-4)
Widener (18-9) at Rochester (22-3), Kean (21-7) vs. Marymount (20-6)

The Mid-Atlantic and the East have become pretty frequent foes in March in recent years, including Scranton and Rochester at opposite ends of this bracket.

Most likely to disappoint: Moravian. They might be the fourth-best team in this regional. The Top 25 suggests that, at least. So, bending the definition, I would go with Tufts, the highest-ranked team in the regional, as the disappointment.

Cinderella: Hillary Klimowicz doesn't meet the traditional definition of a senior who can put the team on her back in March, if only because she's a 6-3 center. TCNJ is on a roll already, having won 20 of its past 21 games.

Champion: Rochester over Scranton, regardless of location. Rochester won at Scranton earlier this year and because of that, may well get the hosting nod. But even at Scranton, I think Rochester has a slight edge. While Scranton probably won't shoot 4-for-27 from the floor in the second half in a rematch, Rochester hasn't shown any real signs of regressing either.

The Illinois Wesleyan Bracket
Ohio Wesleyan (17-11) at Illinois Wesleyan (27-0), UW-Eau Claire (23-5) vs. DePauw (22-5)
Maryville, Mo. (22-5) at UW-Stevens Point (24-3), Concordia-Moorhead (19-8) vs. Concordia, Wis. (22-5)
Ripon (17-8) at St. Benedict (24-3), Simpson (24-3) vs. UW-Whitewater (24-3)
Capital (22-5) at Washington U. (21-4), Transylvania (22-5) vs. Howard Payne (23-5)

A little bit of a sense of humor for the committee, I guess, in pairing up Wesleyans and Concordias, plus the Walnut and Bronze convention in St. Louis, where the programs combine for seven national titles.

Most likely to disappoint: I suppose St. Benedict? They're in the most likely position to fail. Illinois Wesleyan had its season ended at the hands of a WIAC school last year but UW-Whitewater and UW-Eau Claire are not very similar. In fact, Eau Claire and Illinois Wesleyan are very similar stylistically, both quick teams that like to push the ball on offense and press.

Cinderella story: I'd love to be able to say Howard Payne can recapture some of its 2008 magic but it isn't likely they get out of the weekend. UW-Whitewater, if that's fair. If you don't accept that as a reasonable Cinderella because they're the highest-ranked team in the pod, then UW-Eau Claire.

Champion: UW-Stevens Point over Washington U.

The Bowdoin Bracket
Babson (20-8) at Amherst (25-2), Southern Maine (20-6) vs. Emmanuel (21-7)
Salve Regina (20-8) at New York University (21-4), Mary Washington (23-5) vs. Stevens (22-5)
Western Connecticut (21-5) at Brandeis (17-7), Mount St. Mary (23-4) vs. Brockport State (19-9)
Castleton State (17-11) at Bowdoin (24-4), Muhlenberg (24-3) vs. Westfield State (22-4)

Most likely to disappoint: I actually don't think any of the four teams hosting pods should lose the first weekend. Amherst is probably the closest to doing so -- they seem to be the only good New England team that didn't play Brandeis at some point this season. Southern Maine won the Little East Tournament but it's not like they're on a roll, since they lost at home to Western Connecticut just four games ago.

Cinderella story: The teams with the best chances are the aforementioned Southern Maine and Stevens. I'd like Muhlenberg in some circumstances but not at Bowdoin.

Champion: Brandeis over Amherst. I don't know if Brandeis could beat NYU in a third meeting, but Amherst could beat NYU on a neutral floor. This requires Brandeis beating Bowdoin, likely on the road, but Brandeis handled Bowdoin earlier in the year. While Bowdoin has improved, to be sure, and might well be playing at home, I'm sticking with Brandeis winning that game.

The Holland Bracket
Rochester vs. Oglethorpe: Another interesting contrast in styles, but Rochester, more experienced than Oglethorpe, finds a way to win.

UW-Stevens Point vs. Brandeis: I think the run stops for the Judges. And I'm not sure I'm willing to pick an all-UAA title game.

UW-Stevens Point over Rochester. Honestly, when I was filling my own bracket out, I didn't know who was going to win and I don't know any better now. My champion pick could be out by 9 p.m. on March 13. (I doubt sooner.) But I suspect when the pick ‘em contest is done, the fans won't have any consensus on who will win either. This seems like a wide open tournament.

So let's enjoy it!

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