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About the 2003 Division III
men's basketball tournament

Our projected Field of 48

As is traditional, we have attempted to project the field of 48 based on the same criteria the NCAA national committee will be using on Sunday. They give us 35 gimmes in the automatic bids and we have to figure out the 8 Pool C and 5 Pool B bids. (Pool B and C explained)

This bracket almost seemed easy, despite all the tumbling of top seeds into Pool C. What that actually did was make the decision a little more cut-and-dried.

We started the night with three teams we considered Pool C locks: Hampden-Sydney (two overall losses), Rochester (No. 1 in East regional poll) and Ramapo (No. 1 in Atlantic before being upset). It was relatively easy to add the Williams/Amherst loser (they play at noon Sunday, which I'm sure the committee just loves). UW-Stevens Point was a relatively easy pick as well, as the No. 2 team in its region before losing. Next was Catholic, the last remaining No. 2 team in a region that didn't have a bid yet.

That left one spot. Of the teams that were No. 3 in their region, DeSales lost to No. 6 Scranton on Saturday and was 20-5 in-region, plus, they shouldn't have been No. 3 anyway, since the regional committee made its ranking without Mary Washington's win from last Sunday. Why the Midwest could re-write its rankings in midweek and the Middle Atlantic couldn't is beyond me. So of the real No. 3 teams, there was Babson (lost for a third time to Clark), St. Thomas (on an awful stretch and scored just 36 at home against Gustavus) and Rockford (19-1 in-region and idle this week.

We chose Rockford. Note, we didn't discuss William Paterson, ranked second in the Atlantic, because we already have two NJAC teams.

Pool B had either one, two, or four good candidates, depending on who you talk to. Savannah Art & Design is the only team we could all agree on. Maryville (Tenn.) was relatively easy to add, at 12-4 in-region, and Lasell had the benefit of being regionally ranked, sort of.

Now, St. Joseph's (Maine) has declared for the NCAA Tournament this year, after years of declaring NAIA, and while they don't have a lot of in-region games, they only had one regional loss, and they also have a win against Lasell. This was enough for us — we can only hope it's enough for the national committee, because there are not many great Pool B candidates.

The last Pool B slot came down to Presidents' champ Grove City and Allegheny Mountain finalists Pitt-Bradford and Penn State-Behrend. UPB held the advantage over Grove City in regional winning percentage, common opponents and strength of schedule; they did not play head-to-head. UPB also held the advantage over Penn State-Behrend in regional winning percentage, common opponents and strength of schedule, although Behrend won two of the three head-to-head meetings. That, especially considering Bradford won the last meeting and the conference title, did not outweigh the other three criteria.

So we've got our 48 — here's how they shake down. This is in order of seedings.

This was incredibly difficult, and teams moved around a lot before we got here. There were only a couple of things that went right for us, and some of this is based on a tenuous geographic situation. That would be Navtech's online map saying Mississippi College and Maryville (Tenn.) are exactly 500 miles apart. We took that opportunity to drive one to the other, since it is the limit the NCAA will send teams by bus, avoiding a plane flight. Savannah Art & Design, also relatively isolated geographically, can drive more comfortably to Christopher Newport.

That leaves us with three teams that need airplanes, which is perfect, because Occidental is one and needs a first-round bye. Occidental is the only team with an unbeaten regional mark, and should not be denied a bye to save money. I hope the D-III football committee is listening. So we put our three airline teams in one group, with Whitworth flying from Washington to San Antonio to play Trinity, and the winner heading West to play Occidental. (The Oshkosh/Gustavus winner goes to Buena Vista.) This way, too, we knock off the airline teams early, and it seems fairly seeded as well.

Now, the competitive balance was an issue for us as well. We tried everything we could to balance the last three brackets (Great Lakes, Midwest and West) but we unable to get any better than what we have. We tried to get UW-Stevens Point out of the Midwest but couldn't make the geography work, so we moved Illinois Wesleyan out instead and left a very top-heavy bracket, with two of the worst teams in the field remaining at the bottom.

We were unable to bring any better teams into the Northeast and East because of geography. We made a conscientious effort to separate Hampden-Sydney and Randolph-Macon, but when we did, we found our South didn't have a good No. 2 seed. That's how we decided to move in Wooster, and yes, the geography works, with Maryville, Mississippi College and Wooster in one half of the bracket and SCAD, Christopher Newport and Hampden-Sydney in the other. Maryville can get to Wooster without flying, at least (remember Mississippi College goes almost nowhere without flying), as can Hampden-Sydney.

Now it's all over but the complaining, and the questions, and waiting for the official brackets at 9:00 tonight.

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